Scenario 1: Poisoned Chalice, Take One
Parliament votes down Theresa May’s “deal”, then narrowly approves a second referendum.
Remain wins the second referendum by a tiny margin.
May steps down.
The Tories hold a leadership election. Tory party members pick a hard Brexiter.
The new, hard-Brexit Tory government declares that the second referendum result is invalid because (a) there wasn’t a “no-deal” option; and (b) fewer people voted Remain in the second referendum than voted Leave in the first; and (c) lots of other bogus reasons.
The Conservative Party splits.
The new hard-Brexit Tory government loses a no-confidence vote.
Labour wins the ensuing general election, promising to “respect the results” of BOTH referendums.
The new Labour government takes office.
It then discovers that it can’t agree what to do.
And the Article 50 clock is still ticking.
Scenario 2: Poisoned Chalice, Take Two
Parliament votes down Theresa May’s “deal”, then approves a second referendum.
Remain wins the second referendum by a large margin.
May steps down.
The Tories hold a leadership election. Tory party members pick a hard Brexiter.
The Conservative Party splits.
The new hard-Brexit Tory government loses a no-confidence vote.
With the assistance of the Putin-Facebook-Trump axis, as well as the newspapers, the BBC and the Corbyn-fearing establishment, the new-look, far-right Conservative Party wins a landslide.
And finds itself in charge of implementing the Will of the People – to stay in the EU.
Scenario 3: Yellow Vests
Parliament votes down all the options that anyone can think of.
Article 50 expires; the UK crashes out of the EU without a withdrawal agreement.
Almost immediately there are shortages of food, medicines – and fuel.
A populist, French-style “Gilet Jaunes” protest movement erupts.
But there aren’t enough yellow vests to go around – they all have to be imported from France.
Under pressure from angry populist mobs, Theresa May is forced to apply for emergency readmission to the EU in order to get vest imports moving again.
Scenario 4: Abdication Crisis
Taking her constitutional duty seriously during a time of political crisis, the Queen phones the Beeb and says she wants to address her subjects.
The Beeb instantly gives her a slot just before Strictly (or Countryfile or whatever).
The nation tunes in. “Good evening,” says her Majesty. She probably has a corgi on her lap, but it’s not essential. “One has gorn orff Brexit. That is all.” The dog – if there is one – says “arf”.
Politicians – all except for the hardest of the hard Brexiters – fall over themselves to agree that yes, they too have gone off Brexit, and that the Queen, naturally, is channelling the Will of the People.
So Parliament cancels Brexit.
The Brexiters, and certain newspapers which hitherto were staunchly Royalist, denounce the Queen as an Enemy of the People.
Social media instantly fills with Royal kompromat.
The Queen steps down in disgust. Charles takes over. Vast sums of money are spent on a coronation meant to ‘cheer up the nation’.
The kompromat keeps coming.
Charles abdicates and flees to Botswana.
The Brexiters declare that Oliver Cromwell was right after all and seize Parliament.
Civil war ensues.
Scenario 5: The Iraq Option
Tory hard-Brexiters bring down their own government in a no-confidence vote.
A general election is scheduled.
Before the vote takes place, however, John Bolton and Mike Pompeo arrange for Boris Johnson to address the UN Security Council.
Johnson presents incontrovertible evidence that Jeremy Corbyn has built up a secret stockpile of WMD – provided by Iran and Venezuela. Johnson pleads for US assistance in facilitating “a new birth of freedom”.
Trump immediately sends US military “advisors” and “peace-keepers” to the UK, in a mission called “Operation Enduring Brexit”.
A “Provisional Wing” of Momentum is formed.
Trump appoints Steve Bannon as Viceroy of the new UK “Coalition Provisional Authority”, to Johnson’s disappointment.
Tunbridge Wells becomes the new Falluja.
Scenario 6: London Secedes
Theresa May actually wins the meaningful vote on her deal, through some mysterious means that baffles historians for decades to come.
Giddy with vindication and hubris, she reverts to type and plays her hits, denouncing “citizens of nowhere”, “cosmopolitans” and “multi-culturalists”, and promising to deport anyone who looks “too foreign”.
A list of potential deportees is leaked to The Guardian.
Finding himself on the list, London Mayor Sadiq Khan, to great popular acclaim in the metropolis, declares London to be an independent city state within the EU. Kind of like San Marino, only bigger.
The M25 becomes an international border.
Gun boats patrol the Thames to keep vital sea routes open and guard against Brexiter saboteurs and pirates.
Passport and customs checks begin at South Mimms.
Scenario 7: Global Britain
The hard Brexiters depose Theresa May and take charge.
Parliament votes against a “no-deal” Brexit, but the new PM, Jacob Rees-Mogg, invokes a clause in an obscure treaty from the 12th century that rules that Parliament can only debate in Latin.
While MPs struggle to learn Latin, Article 50 expires and the UK crashes out of the EU without a withdrawal agreement.
The new government abolishes all tariffs and all regulations affecting businesses, workers and capital, as well as nearly all government departments.
Too general amazement, investment pours in from across the world and Britain becomes the “Singapore of Europe”.
But then a SARS-type virus – later traced to a contaminated shipment of dollars from Panama – slips into the country.
And, because there is no longer an NHS, or a Department of Health, everyone dies.
Scenario 8: Ireland’s Revenge
Theresa May wins the meaningful vote (see Scenario 6).
But negotiations with the EU during the “implementation period” go nowhere, and the “Irish Backstop” takes effect.
Anti-Irish agitation in the Brexity north of England provokes a pro-Irish backlash in the southeast.
Violence breaks out and escalates.
The southeast pleads for Irish assistance.
Irish peace-keeping troops arrive as part of a UN-mandated mission.
A popular plebiscite in the southeast is held.
The southeast votes to become part of Ireland.
The counties of the north form the province of “Northern England”, which becomes a poverty-stricken US Territory, like Puerto Rico.
Scenario 9: It Was All A Dream
David Cameron wakes up in a cold sweat inside his luxury shepherd’s hut to discover, to his surprise, that it is 2018 and he is still Prime Minister.
“Phew,” he thinks, “thank God it was just a nightmare!”
But then he picks up the Daily Telegraph and reads that Tory hardliners are plotting to remove him and UKIP is stealing Tory voters.
“Why won’t they stop banging on about Europe, like I told them to!” he fumes.
Then he reflects for a moment and decides that, for the sake of the Conservative Party, he must sacrifice himself and go ahead with the referendum.
Scenario 10: Zombie Apocalypse
Despite the urgent warnings of Theresa May, the Conservative newspapers, the BBC and establishment commentators that it will unleash “dark forces”, a second referendum is held.
Remain wins.
Dogs begin to howl. Cats hide under the furniture.
The spectre of Enoch Powell flits across the landscape.
David Cameron takes a sudden, unplanned holiday in the Maldives.
Deceased Leave voters rise from the dead.
The Zombie Apocalypse commences.
